Hurricane Rachel is expected to make landfall in Southern California or Baja California as a tropical storm.

#ChadCrilley #Rachel #CAwx From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: (10/8/26) Thursday Afternoon FULL Forecast - Rachel to Bring Weekend Rain, Wind, Surge Threat A dynamic and complicated forecast continues to evolve this afternoon. The latest cone from the National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Rachel beginning a turn to the northeast sometime between now and 11 PM tonight. When that turn takes place will be key to how far south or north Rachel makes landfall. The quicker the turn to the northeast, the further south Rachel makes landfall. The longer it takes, the further north. BEACH IMPACTS: Regardless of where Rachel makes landfall, significant beach impacts are expected Sunday and Monday. Coastal erosion, flooding, and high surf (up to 10 FT) are expected. The greatest threat of coastal flooding will come during high tides, which will peak between 6.5–7 FT. Complicating matters, a Kelvin wave is directly over our waters, which is already raising sea levels. Seas are 18" higher than this time last year. Should Rachel take a northerly track, storm surge may be an issue for our south-facing beaches. RAIN: Rain is likely in San Diego and Imperial Counties, along with a flooding threat. Confidence in rainfall totals is very low and will depend entirely on where Rachel tracks. Most of Southern California is at risk level 2/4 for flash flooding Sunday. WIND: Very strong winds are expected Saturday–Monday across the mountains and desert floors. A few gusts up to 70 mph are possible, but most gusts will be in the range of 30–60 mph. Blowing dust in Imperial County is likely, along with poor air quality. At the beaches, gusts of 20–40 mph are possible. AFTER RACHEL: After Rachel moves east Sunday afternoon, a strong area of low pressure will move through Southern California and bring a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday, mainly in San Diego County. Much colder air will move in, with snow showers possible in the highest elevations. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM tonight for the coast and valleys. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until 8 PM Friday night for the desert floors and much of Imperial County. #Socalwx #Sandiegowx #Trackingthetropics #Imperialcountywx #Julian #Pinevalley #Alpine #Brawley #Elcentro #Encinitas #Oceanside #Rachel #Heatwave @ai6yr @cookiesinheaven @uccawx

#ChadCrilley #CAwx #Rachel From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: TROPICAL STORM WATCH: For only the second time in history, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for San Diego County. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. Overnight, computer models have been bullish on shifting #Rachel's track to the north, with a possible landfall in San Diego County. Rachel is expected to strength on final approach to San Diego and may briefly near hurricane stregth. Now is the time to begin preparing for Rachel's impacts, not when the storm arrives. There is also a growing threat of severe weather in Imperial County Saturday evening into Sunday, with damaging winds and possible tropical tornadoes. I'll have updates throughout the day, but let's plan on a live Q&A tonight at 5 PM. #TrackingTheTropics #Rachel #TropicalStorm #SanDiego #Encinitas #SoCalWX #ImperialCountyWX #Oceanside @ai6yr @uccawx @cookiesinheaven

#ChadCrilley #Rachel #SevereWeather #CAwx From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: (10/7/26) Wednesday FULL Forecast - Rachel May Make Landfall in San Diego as a Tropical Storm A dynamic, complicated, and challenging forecast has presented itself across So Cal. The National Hurricane Center now explicitly mentions that Hurricane Rachel may make landfall in Southern California or Baja California as a tropical storm. There are three notable tropical events in San Diego's history. The first is the 1858 San Diego Hurricane, which never actually made landfall. The second is the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm, which did make landfall and brought gusty winds. The third and most recent is Tropical Storm Hilary in 2023, which brought extreme damage to the Palm Springs area. Rachel is expected to make a turn to the northeast tomorrow as it gets picked up by a trough of low pressure (more on that later) to our north. Rachel makes it into the vicinity of So Cal by Thursday. The two most likely scenarios are that Rachel either passes to our south, limiting our rain chances, or passes overhead, bringing a significant flooding threat to our area, along with very gusty winds. Regardless of where Rachel makes landfall, significant beach impacts are expected, including coastal erosion, flooding, high surf, and dangerous rip currents. If San Diego County falls into the northeast quadrant of Rachel (the dirty side of a tropical system), minor storm surge is possible along our south-facing beaches. By Monday, Rachel moves east, but a strong area of low pressure will move in directly behind it, bringing continued rain chances and much cooler weather. Snow levels will start out at 9,000 feet Monday night before dropping to 8,000 feet Tuesday night. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the San Diego County coastal areas and valleys through 8 PM Thursday. An Extreme Heat Warning is also in effect for the San Diego County desert floors and Imperial County through Friday night at 8 PM. @uccawx @ai6yr @cookiesinheaven #Socalwx #Sandiegowx #Trackingthetropics #Imperialcountywx #Julian #Pinevalley #Alpine #Bralwey #Elcentro #Encinitas #Oceanside #Heatwave

#ChadCrilley #Rachel #CAwx #SevereWeather From Meteorologist Chad Crilley on FB: 5 PM RACHEL: The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center is out and shows Rachel as a strong tropical storm with max winds of 65 mph. The new cone shifts Rachel's landfall location just a hair to the north and west. Regardless of where exactly Rachel comes ashore, major impacts to So Cal are expected tonight. We have been seeing periods of light to moderate rain throughout the day, but the part of the storm we are most concerned about moves in near midnight tonight. Strong gusty winds will lead to down trees and isolated power outages in both San Diego and Imperial County. Coastal flooding has already started at many area beaches and is expected to continue into Sunday. There remains a small risk for severe weather tonight in Imperial County. It is a good idea to be off the road by 9 pm tonight. #Socalwx #Sandiegowx #Imperialcountywx #tropicalstormrachel *PROGRAMING NOTE: There will be no full forecast tonight as updates will be continues through the night and the focus remains on the short term forecast, not the extended forecast. @ai6yr @uccawx @cookiesinheaven