New Science Points to Significant Decline of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Warning of Catastrophic European Impact

New research ... found an estimated #AmocSlowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in #AmocCollapse . ... #Rahmstorf said #Amoc slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment. This is because the computer models do not include the #meltwater from the #Greenland ice cap that is also freshening the #ocean waters: “That is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse.” #ClimateCrisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought Also note the last paragraph, where it says that it might be even worse than these most pessimistic model outcomes. #climatechange #amoc https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

"A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western #Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic." "Rahmstorf said #Amoc slowdown in 2100 may be even greater than in the new, pessimistic assessment. [Meltwater from the Greenland ice cap] is one additional factor that means the reality is probably still worse." https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

RE: https://mastodon.nl/@Blogfeedser/116426759073016504 🌎 AMOC likely to weaken 51% (±8%) by 2100 – far more than model ensemble mean (32±37%) according to new science paper. Observational constraints + ridge regression correct South Atlantic salinity bias, bringing tipping point closer. 🔗 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298 #AMOC #ClimateTippingPoints #Oceanography #ClimateScience #AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation #ClimateProjections

#news "Neue Studie: Die meisten Klimamodelle unterschätzen den Rückgang der atlantischen Umwälzströmung #AMOC. Die AMOC wird sich bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts voraussichtlich um mehr als 50 % verlangsamen. 🌊 Es ist sehr wahrscheinlich, dass die AMOC dann den Wendepunkt überschritten haben wird, an dem ein vollständiger Stillstand eintritt." https://us.cnn.com/2026/04/16/climate/atlantic-ocean-circulation-collapse-update

New study: most climate models underestimate the decline of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC. The AMOC is on course to slow by more than 50% by the end of the century. 🌊 Very likely the AMOC will then be past the tipping point for full shutdown. 😨 https://us.cnn.com/2026/04/16/climate/atlantic-ocean-circulation-collapse-update

https://www.europesays.com/2925504/ A Critical Ocean Current System May Be Unraveling Faster Than We Thought #AMOC #AtlanticOcean #ClimateChange #ExtremeWeather #News #world #WorldNews #WorldTopics

My NEW video on new Science: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - AMOC to Weaken by 51% (Uncertainty 8%) by 2100 https://youtu.be/bliEJ0NwB-U?si=ZzPpNgCGLD-ces6P #climate #weather #oceans #AMOC #meteorology #oceanography #science

Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought #news #science #environment #climate #amoc

AMOC? More certain than previously thought https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298 And Guardian article https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought Okay. Or not. But what does it mean, regionally, on the way to the OFF state? Do we, us alive today experience any changes in our lifetime? I would say yes. Disclaimer: it's conjecture. and I am no expert in anything. So. From tipping to OFF, it takes 100 to 150 years. What happens during this slowdown phase? I read in another paper that because AMOC slowdown intensifies the #ColdBlob, it also changes how the Lows and Highs over the Atlantic are distributed, which changes the jetstream, which in turn causes more extreme heat events in Europe. More #ExtremeHeat events? How do those affect our biosphere in Europe? Well, I don't know exactly. But IPCC AR6 WG2 has mapped the impact on European plants, insects and mammals if we let global 3.2C become reality. As you can see, 3.2C spells extinction level for European insects – due to heat events and related processes that come with 3.2C. And I believe, a slow-ING #AMOC mimics heat events of such high-emission scenarios. So we, us alive today, will watch our European insects AND soil…! die right in front of our eyes. I think.

Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas "Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said: “I now am increasingly worried that we may well pass that Amoc shutdown tipping point, where it becomes inevitable, in the middle of this century, which is quite close.” " "Rahmstorf, who has studied the Amoc for 35 years, has said a collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. “I argued this when we thought the chance of an Amoc shutdown was maybe 5%, and even then we were saying that risk is too high, given the massive impacts. Now it looks like it’s more than 50%. The most dramatic and drastic climate changes we see in the last 100,000 years of Earth history have been when the Amoc switched to a different state.” " >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought #AMOC #Cryosphere #climate #climatedisruption #RapidClimateShifts #FossilFuels

Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC). #Climate models have previously suggested a reduction in AMOC strength of 32±37% by 2100. But a closer examination, however, gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51±8%. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface #salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future #adaptation strategies. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx4298

I better start painting the roof white, add more insulation and huge water storage tanks and grow more food... Maybe I can, but most can't and will suffer. Or be shot or drowned at our borders...What a terrible outlook. #climate #ClimateCrisis #amoc #oceancirculation https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought

The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ( #AMOC ) is a major part of the global climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. Climate scientists use dozens of different computer models to assess the future climate. -- However, for the complex Amoc system, these produce widely varying results, ranging from some that indicate no further slowdown by 2100 to those suggesting a huge deceleration of about 65%, even when carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are gradually cut to net zero. The research combined real-world ocean observations with the models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty. They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse. The Amoc is a major part of the global climate system and brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic. Dr Valentin Portmann, at the Inria Centre de recherche Bordeaux Sud-Ouest in France and who led the new research, said: “We found that the Amoc is going to decline more than expected compared to the average of all climate models. This means we have an Amoc that is closer to a tipping point.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

"The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. Climate scientists use dozens of different computer models to assess the future climate. However, for the complex Amoc system, these produce widely varying results, ranging from some that indicate no further slowdown by 2100 to those suggesting a huge deceleration of about 65%, even when carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning are gradually cut to net zero. The research combined real-world ocean observations with the models to determine the most reliable, and this hugely reduced the spread of uncertainty. They found an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% in 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse. The Amoc is a major part of the global climate system and brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. A collapse would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50-100cm to already rising sea levels around the Atlantic." https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/15/critical-atlantic-current-significantly-more-likely-to-collapse-than-thought #ClimateChange #Amoc #GlobalWarming