Nonviolent campaigns are more effective than violent ones according to Chenoweth and Stephan's research.

(in whole or part). To begin, Chenoweth’s core claim (with Maria J. Stephan) is that nonviolent campaigns outperform violent ones. But that finding is descriptive, not predictive, and heavily dependent on which cases make it into the dataset. Selection bias is a major issue. The data mostly includes movements that were allowed to form and persist. In the most repressive regimes, dissent is often crushed before it becomes measurable, so those failures do not …

begin, Chenoweth's core claim (with Maria J. Stephan) is that nonviolent campaigns outperform violent ones. But that finding is descriptive, not predictive, and heavily dependent on which cases make it into the dataset. Selection bias is a major issue. The data mostly includes movements that were allowed to form and persist. In the most repressive regimes, dissent is often crushed before it becomes measurable, so those failures do not count. Scholars like Stathis Kalyvas argue nonviolence …