There is a high chance of wetting rainfall across most of North Carolina today, except the northwest.

#NCwx Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED * Have bumped today`s highs downward slightly from the Triangle south and east, where confidence in widespread rain is high. Otherwise, no major changes. KEY MESSAGES As of 310 AM Saturday... 1) Unseasonably cool today, with a high chance of wetting rainfall over all but the NW. 2) Temps will trend above normal Mon into Wed, ahead of a cold front that may bring strong storms by Thu. 3) Marginal fire concerns Monday and Tuesday within a dry and increasingly gusty airmass. DISCUSSION As of 310 AM Saturday.. KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonably cool today, with a high chance of wetting rainfall over all but the NW. Today`s forecast remains largely on track, with increasing confidence in a solid area of rain spreading over mainly our SE half. A weak surface cold front pushing SE through the area currently will merge with an existing stronger cold front snaking from the N Gulf across N FL and just off the Southeast/Carolina coast, and this front will waver a bit but mostly hold in place today as a series of surface lows tracks along the front, all while a cooler air mass begins to move in from the NW and W. (This synoptic setup is similar to a typical wintertime pattern in the Carolinas, although with warmer temperatures.) The occurrence of rain today is a near certainty for areas SE of the Triangle, where PW values are projected to be above normal today and where light rain is already approaching from the SW, according to regional composite radar imagery. But a couple of factors will keep rainfall amounts to a half inch or less over all but the far SE CWA (MEB/FAY/CTZ/GSB): Over much of the area, somewhat dry air in the very low levels combined with modest and elevated moist upglide, marginal PW just a bit above normal, and an overall lack of convective elements should limit rain rates. We`re already seeing this upstream with the northern area of the rain shield producing rates of just a few hundredths per hour. Over our far SE CWA, however, where moisture will be deeper with a shallower sub-cloud layer beneath stronger upper divergence to help force ascent, rainfall totals today are expected to reach three-quarters to just over one inch. These totals are in line with the most likely scenario from the latest HREF and LREF suites. Pops are expected to be highest between 12z and 19z. Models are in good agreement on moving precip out of our NE in the early afternoon and out of our SE during the early evening hours. Temps are expected to be quite cool today, within several degrees of record-cool daytime highs at RDU and especially FAY (see climate section below). The Triad area, which will have the potential for a little late-afternoon partial sunshine, should reach the low-mid 60s, however from the Triangle to the S and E, highs are most likely to range from the mid 50s to around 60, given the widespread precip and clouds.

#NCwx #SCwx #GAwx Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 216 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026 WHAT HAS CHANGED Rainfall amounts have trended still lower for today. No issuance of Frost Advisory being made at this time for tonight, due to low confidence. KEY MESSAGES 1. Rain chances increase tonight and peak Saturday morning. They taper off Saturday afternoon with showers moving east of our area by the early evening. Temperatures will remain well-below normal today and Saturday. 2. Cool temperatures across the mountains Saturday night could result in frost early Sunday morning. Precautions may need to be taken to protect sensitive plants. 3. Another cold front may bring rain to the area during the middle part of the week, but the chances for significant rain or severe storms remain low. DISCUSSION Key message 1: Rain chances increase tonight and peak Saturday morning. They taper off Saturday afternoon with showers moving east of our area by the early evening. Temperatures will remain well-below normal today and Saturday. A broad area of high pressure gradually expands into the lower MS Valley and across the Appalachians this morning; this looks to result in dry/cold advection into our CWA from the northwest today. Aloft, preceding the high, a well defined shortwave is set to swing across the Southeast CONUS. A weak sfc wave develops as the shortwave activates a quasi-stationary surface front along the Gulf Coast, and some warm upglide will occur across GA/SC/NC in the sloped baroclinic zone, with the upglide really only seen at 800-700 mb over our southeastern zones (roughly along/SE of I-85). The better low-level moisture and forcing looks to remain to our southeast. As seen on earlier model progs, a sharp gradient of precip appears likely to result. North of I-85, it appears questionable much if any precip will occur due to the warm front. The warm frontal precip peaks in coverage/rates this morning and diminishes through early afternoon. The push of the cold front east of the mountains later this afternoon, however, could result in a few showers or even a brief thunderstorm as a shallow layer of instability develops. Such activity looks most likely in the upper Savannah Valley and vicinity, per REFS members and consistent signal from multiple HRRR runs, though the HRW-FV3 and 3km NAM hint at a little development in the NC Piedmont by early evening. QPF has trended down on most guidance, with an even sharper gradient seen in the NBM than on earlier runs. Most areas between I-85 and I-40 look to get only a few hundredths at most out of the warm front, with amounts along our southeast border generally 0.10"-0.30". The development of showers along the cold front could result in another few hundredths to a tenth of an inch per the REFS PMM. Temps remain a bit tricky with the competing influences of the cold front, downsloping, and also the potential for diabatic cooling as the warm frontal precip falls into the dry airmass. Regarding max temps, most guidance has trended warmer on account of the lower QPF, though e.g. the NAM still shows some sudden 5-10 degree drops after the onset of its precip. Afternoon maxes look to be mainly in the mid-upper 60s across the upper Piedmont and Foothills due to downsloping, and lower 60s in the mtn valleys and far SE zones where the warm frontal rain lasts the longest.